Last Friday, the pound fell by 93 points at the moment, slightly piercing the signal target level of 1.3646 and rebounded off it. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has returned to its own wedge. This is a good sign of an impending breakout of the wedge to the downside, but the oscillator line is very close to the top of the wedge, which can later turn into a regular rectangular (gray rectangle), and this will allow the price to form a new high, above the 21st’s peak. Getting the price to settle below 1.3646 will direct the price to the 1.3480 level according to the main scenario. The MACD line also strives for it.
The four-hour chart shows that if the price rises, a double divergence is formed. This is an alternative scenario, but its probability is high, as the price reversed from the support of the MACD and Marlin line in a growing position. Ultimately, either with double divergence or without it, we are waiting for the price to move under the signal target level of 1.3646 and wait for the price in the area of the target level of 1.3480.
The daily chart shows the price met the resistance of the balance indicator line and the upper border of the consolidation range of 1.2132/77. The Marlin oscillator is turning to the downside. We are waiting for the price to leave the area under the lower border of the consolidation range and a subsequent attack on the MACD line in the 1.2070 area, getting the price to settle below it opens the 1.1915 target.
The four-hour chart shows that the 1.2132 level coincides with the MACD indicator line, respectively, the level, like the consolidation range itself, gains strategic importance in the short-term current situation.
The Australian dollar fell by 50 points last Friday. As we expected, there has been a reversal from the 0.7770 level, but in order to break the growing trend, the price must settle below the nearest target level of 0.7641 (high on December 17). For a decisive breakdown of the growing trend and in order to change it to a downward one in the medium term, the price must overcome the support of the MACD line on the daily chart, the 0.7508 level. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone, which helps the price develop a downward movement.
The four-hour chart shows that the price has settled below the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator is in the bears’ area – a short-term downtrend has taken place. Now we are waiting for the price to surpass the 0.7641 level.
The potential to reverse has materialized for the USD/JPY pair last Friday. The daily chart shows that the price rose from the support of the MACD line, while the Marlin oscillator turned to the upside from the border of the negative area. The nearest target of the pair is 104.18, along the price channel line. Getting the pair to settle above it opens a higher target at 105.44, also along the embedded price channel line of the higher (monthly) timeframe.
The four-hour chart shows that the price is consolidating slightly ahead of Friday’s high (103.90) and ahead of the MACD line. Surpassing this resistance (103.90) will provide the currency pair with the chance to advance further. The convergence of price and the Marlin oscillator continues to develop and is helping this offensive.