AUD/USD The growth of the Australian Dollar yesterday was blocked by the black candle of the previous day (Wednesday). At the moment, the price is above the target level of 0.7770, which creates the risk of moving to the target level of 0.7905 (the minimum of August 2008) and this growth fits perfectly into the structure of the development of the Marlin Oscillator. With this, a reversal divergence will be created while fixing the price under 0.7770 will show the intention of the price to move to 0.7641 and 0.7465. The final outcome will only be seen on Monday.
On the four-hour scale chart, the price developed above the balance and Kruzenshtern indicator lines. Fixing the price below 0.7770 will also mean fixing under these indicator lines. In this case, the Marlin will move in the zone of negative values which will create a condition for the beginning of a short-term downward movement.
The Marlin Oscillator has been in a downward trend zone for a week now, a sign that the euro will strengthen its attempts to break down the remaining rising technical signs. The price continues to develop above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. Getting the pair to settle below it, under 1.2050, will strengthen the market’s downward sentiment and send the price towards the 1.1920 target (November 9 high).
The price is consolidating in the 1.2132/77 range on the four-hour chart, but a more pronounced consolidation is observed on the Marlin oscillator. The main direction of the oscillator signal line’s exit from the range is to the downside, but taking into account that it could form on the border of the positive area following the previous growth (technical figure “flag”), there is still a possibility that the price could rise to the MACD line (1.2220) or even to the target level of 1.2273 – the high on December 17. In order to confirm the price’s intention to fall, the price would have to settle below the lower border of the 1.2132 range.
Despite yesterday’s growth of the British pound by almost 50 points, the wedge of the Marlin oscillator remains intact, which also preserves the probability of the signal line leaving it downward according to our main scenario. The nearest target level of 1.3480 for the peaks of December 9 and September 1 of the previous year remains relevant. Next, the price will need to overcome the support of the MACD line, below 1.3380, which will be the first fulfilled condition for the development of a medium-term downward movement.
The price on the four-hour chart is above the MACD indicator line, but a divergence is already forming with the Marlin oscillator. Fixation under the MACD line (1.3640) will automatically lead to the departure of Marlin in the zone of a declining trend, which will become a condition for a short-term price decline, obviously, with the target of 1.3480.
Yesterday, the Japanese yen showed a range of 62 points and decreased 8 points as the day closed. The amplitude limiters on the daily chart were the Kruzenshtern line (bottom) and the Trend Channel Line (top). The Marlin oscillator remains in the growth zone as the trend remains growing also. We are waiting for the price to work out at the resistance trend line in the area of 104.24, overcome it and rise to the next embedded line of the price channel at 105.50. According to an alternative scenario, fixing the prices below the yesterday’s minimum and the Kruzenshtern line will continue its decline up to the target of 103.00.
Based on the four-hour chart, the price is currently above the Kruzenshtern line. The support at the point of convergence of these lines according to H4 and daily charts is definitely strong. The Marlin oscillator, which is in the zone of a declining trend will fail. Growth is a difficult one. Fixing the price above 104.24 may occur in 4 to 5 days.