The double divergence for the British pound is starting to run in full force on the daily chart. Today the Marlin oscillator crossed the border into the bears’ territory. We are waiting for the pair to fall to the first target of 1.3342 – to the MACD line.
The four-hour chart shows that the price has settled below both indicator lines: below the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue). The price paused before the signal level of 1.3537, probably in order to accelerate the decline after accumulating strength in a small consolidation.
Yesterday, against the backdrop of “direct action” by Donald Trump’s supporters who stormed the Senate building in the process of approving the results of the presidential elections in the country, government bonds continued to sharply rise in yields and the dollar strengthened. Investors decided to take advantage of the situation and successfully closed early purchases of the euro and began to buy dollars as a promising currency in anticipation of an imminent economic recovery with the coming to power of Biden. The yield on 5-year bonds from Tuesday to Thursday rose from 0.353% to 0.427%.
Thus, the euro did not realize its long-accumulated potential to reach the 1.2414 target. Now the price is likely to break the control level of 1.2215 and move to the MACD line in the 1.2060 area. The Marlin oscillator, after forming a double or triple divergence, shifted into the negative area – into the territory of a downward trend.
The four-hour chart shows that the price broke away from the MACD line this morning, clearly intending to attack 1.2215. Marlin is accelerating to the downside. With overcoming the control-target level, a slight delay with the rise of Marlin (discharge of the oversold indicator) and falling further towards 1.2060, 1.1885 is likely.
Against the background of yesterday’s large-scale strengthening of the dollar (only oil did not follow the dollar’s growth), the Australian currency lost 34 points; it returned to the target level of 0.7770, the Marlin oscillator returned to its own downward channel, leaving the exit from it on the 6th as false, which we assumed in yesterday’s review. Now, we are waiting for the signal line of the oscillator to exit the channel down, go into the zone of negative values, and further advance the price to the targets of 0.7641, 0.7465.
The price on the four-hour scale is still above the balance and MACD indicator lines, but Marlin is already in the territory of a declining trend, dragging the market sentiment to a further decline. In order to consolidate this trend, the price will need to go under the MACD line, below 0.7220. This is the main scenario.
USD/JPY gained 76 points yesterday. The other day we wrote that the yen chooses its direction based on two main factors: the global strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the stock market. The yen made its choice based on the dollar, but yesterday the stock market also grew by 1.48% (S&P 500), which created an enhanced impact on growth.
The daily chart shows that the resistance of the MACD line has been successfully overcome; nothing keeps the price from rising towards the embedded price channel line of the higher timeframe with the target at 104.30. Likely to surpass this line and to rise towards the next target at 105.55. The Marlin oscillator has entered the growth area, the technical outlook is only for short-term growth, which can later strengthen in the medium-term.
The four-hour chart shows rapid growth. The Marlin oscillator is high. With the achievement of the first target of 104.30, a correction with a discharge (decrease) of the oscillator is likely, afterwards we expect growth to continue.